The Trading Deadline and how Big Papi will fare

As I’m sure you’ve noticed, there’s been some pretty big names switching cities this week. I’m very interested to see how these trades pan out, because only time can tell who gets the better end of a trade.

One of the most interesting things for me will be the various effects of the Manny trade. Obviously no one can replace Manny in a lineup, and I think one of the forgotten elements of that is the protection he offers the hitter in front of him. Everyone knows that David Ortiz is a great hitter, but I wonder how much of his success is due to the guy hitting behind him. When Ortiz was in Minnesota he wasn’t a star by any means, and obviously a lot of his turn around in Boston came when they explained to him that he’s not a small-ball, Minnesota Twins type player. He’s a slugger and he should be driving guys in from first rather than getting them over to second. Opening him up to do that made a big difference, but I’m guessing it didn’t hurt that he had a phenomenal hitter behind him in the order.

Some level of evidence can be seen in the stats. Ortiz wasn’t consistently the number three hitter (in front of Manny) until his second season with the Sox (2004). His first season with them he was certainly better than he was with the Twins, but his second season is when he really took off. In 2003: .288/.369/.592 and in 2004: .301/.380/.603. That obviously doesn’t prove anything, but I do think it’s interesting to note. The other main piece of evidence to show there is value hitting in front of Manny is how well JD Drew did with it this year. Other than his post season performance last year, Drew has been a bit of a bust in Boston, until they plopped him in front of Manny when Ortiz was hurt. Again, I’m not saying this was the only reason for the turn around, I’m just saying it couldn’t have hurt.

The point of all this being that it will be interesting to see not only how Ortiz and Drew do now that Manny is playing on the other end of the country, but it will be interesting to see how Russell Martin or whoever hits in front of Manny does. Keep your eye out, see if there’s any legitimacy to my claims.

The others thing that will be interesting to watch, and even harder to evaluate is Griffey’s impact. He should help White Sox offense a bit, assuming he essentially bumps out Konerko, but his defense in center field could have a negative impact. In general, I’m curious how many games may be sacrificed due to the White Sox lousy defense in the outfield. It’s not hard at all for one fly ball to determine the fate of a game, and if it’s one that the old legs out there can’t quite catch up to, it’s going to result in a few games not going the way of Chicago. Of course as a Twins fan, I like the sound of that, and given the Twins relatively strong outfield defense I feel secure there. Unfortuntely the Twins are not without their fair share of problems, and in general I would have to imagine the addition of Griffey will slightly help the White Sox.