So once again it’s been questioned whether or not the Twins are just lucky. People frequently cite the impressive .312 average with runners in scoring position. This is of course higher than expected, but I don’t think it’s clear proof that it’s just them being lucky. I have a few different thoughts on the matter.
First off, I wonder whether they’re just getting runners in scoring position with the right men up. Clearly if men are in scoring position with your best hitters up the team will have a higher average with runners in scoring position. In the Twins case, those hitters are Mauer and Morneau. Based on the fact that Morneau is racking up the RBI’s it’s safe to assume he’s getting plenty of chances with men on. The top of the order for much of the year was Gomez and Casilla, while Gomez has a pretty feeble OBP for a leadoff man, his speed often allowed him to advance into scoring position rather than just being on first, of course what aided this was Casilla’s success in the two hole. He actually has a higher average with men on first only (.333) rather than in scoring position (.322). Of course behind him is Mauer who has an excellent OBP of .409, which frequently pushed Casilla into scoring position. So now is when Morneau comes up and there may very well be someone in scoring position, and his average in that situation? A beefy .374. He also has the most at bats with runners in scoring position, which makes sense based on what I just laid out. Alright, well how does this compare to last year, a year where the Twins as a team only hit .276 with RISP and missed the playoffs? Morneau hit .291. The huge increase can perhaps be explained by Morneau’s maturation as a hitter. Morneau himself said he felt his lower level of success last year was due to the fact he was trying to hit homeruns more, and this year he isn’t. And it could well be assumed he tried to hit them more with runners on. So perhaps one reason the Twins are doing so well with runners in scoring position is Justin Morneau and his possible development as a better clutch hitter. The rest of the Twins lineup’s RISP average is closer to their overall average.
Another possible explanation is their style of play in combination with the Metrodome. When there are runners in scoring position the opposing infield will many times be brought in to try and cut down a runner at the plate. With the infield in they have less range on grounders, this becomes amplified on the fast Metrodome turf, and additionally by the groundball hitters the Twins have in their order. As a team they have a groundball-flyball ratio of 1.4, well above the league average.
I guess the final matter is whether or not any of this is important. Even if the Twins are getting quite lucky and they shouldn’t be doing as well as they are, the fact is they have been pretty consistently good with RISP, and it’s not as if we’re looking at stats from a month or two, 118 games is a reasonable sample size, so even if they’re just lucky, who’s to say they can’t keep being lucky?
