Did the Rays Win the Garza-Young Trade?

I’m not quite so ready to say they did. I see a lot of people talking about what a great trade it was for the Rays. Granted it would seem that this year it’s been better for them as they’re still playing and the Twins aren’t (of course there are a lot of other factors at play there). But even if Delmon had had a terrible year and Garza had been phenomenal (neither of which were the case) you can’t yet judge a trade where the two main players are still under 25.

So let’s take a quick look at how the players compare.

• Matt Garza had a good year, he finally seemed to get comfortable and no longer loses his composure at the first sign of trouble. He also posted impressive stats. Looking at standard sorts of numbers, he was 11-9 with a 3.70 ERA and and 128 strikeouts in 184.2 innings. Slightly more advanced numbers are and ERA+ of 118 (100 is average), a WHIP of 1.24, and 50% quality starts. Good numbers certainly, and I’m sure the Rays are pretty excited about the fact that he won’t even be 25 until next month.

• Jason Bartlett was given the team MVP award by the Tampa Bay sports writers. A lot of people didn’t agree with that since he had an OPS+ of 85. He hit a solid .286, but he managed only 1 homerun and 37 RBIs while walking only 22 times. His defense was considered a reason for the team’s dramatic turnaround, but his ‘range factor’ and ‘zone rating’ suggest he’s only about league average for qualifying shortstops. Watching him play I feel he’s a good defender, but not much suggests that’s he’s great.

• Delmon Young was a disappointment to many, and seemed to be perpetually frustrating to Twins fans. Despite what a lot of them might tell you, he actually had a pretty solid season. An OPS+ of 100 suggests he was exactly league average. He batted .290 and hit 10 homers, which was good enough for third on the Twins. Something I look at as a positive is the direction of his strikeout to walk ratio. He still strikes out an awful lot and doesn’t walk very often, but compared to the year before they’re both moving in the right direction. Delmon played good defense as well. Admittedly I’d rather see the ball hit to Gomez or Span, but that doesn’t mean he’s not good. His 11 outfield assists were good enough for sixth among all outfielders. Also, I think it’s really important to note here that the kid just turned 23 a couple weeks ago. There is a ton of room for improvement and nothing to suggest that it isn’t coming.

• Brendan Harris is believed to be the weakest of the four players (I’m ignoring Jason Pridie and Eduardo Morlan) partially because he’s now 28 and isn’t considered to have a whole lot of upside. That’s not to say he wasn’t extremely valuable to the Twins this year. He played a 130 games mainly at second, third, and short. He had an OPS+ of 94 while hitting .265 with seven homers. Nothing too impressive, but not far from average. His defense is usually considered to be lousy, but his range factor last year actually suggests he was a pretty good shortstop (but not so good at second and third). I don’t see him at all as a long term solution for the Twins, but he’s filled in acceptably well.

So after all of that what do we have? A simple summing on each side of OPS+/ERA+ puts the Rays at 203 and the Twins at 194. It’s a difference, but not a huge one. Obviously that’s an extremely crude way to compare and doesn’t take into account a lot of things (like defense). Some additional factors were the needs of the teams. The Twins at the time thought they really needed a solid outfielder (after losing Hunter, not yet having Gomez, and not being so sure about Kubel as well as Denard Span not having emerged) and liked the look of Young (now of course they seem to have too many outfielders, but I suppose that’s a good problem to have) and the Rays wanted some pitching and were also looking to upgrade their defense. All the involved players are being payed relative pennies, so that wasn’t really a factor. How would things look if next year Garza has an ERA of 4.20 and Delmon hits .300 with 20 homers? That’s fairly unlikely, but no one’s going to tell you it can’t happen. The only thing that can be said definitively about this trade is that it’s way too early to know who got the better end, and I’m tired of people presuming otherwise.

Ode to an Unlikely Season

The Twins are done for the year after a disappointing loss to the White sox in their 163 game of the year. 163rd games really make you realize how important every game is. It makes you wonder about games that could have been. It makes you wonder what would have happened if the ump had made the right call on that Pierzynski play awhile back, or what might have happened if Cliff Lee had started the last game against the White Sox instead of Bryan Bullington, or how things might have looked if the Twins bullpen wasn’t so atrocious for their extensive late season road trips, or if they had brought up Liriano and replaced Livan one start earlier. Unfortunately these are what-ifs that will nave have answers. After all, that’s just how baseball works, some things don’t go your way and some do. At the end of the year you just hope to come out ahead. The Twins finished the season needing one more thing to go right.

But what an improbable season it was! One of my favorite things about the season is that if you look back to the beginning and think about it, it makes no sense that we competed. It would have surprised people if the Twins needed a 143rd game, much less a 163rd. Let’s look at it like this:

The Twins were well short of the playoffs last year, then lost the game’s best pitcher, and their star outfielder who was a key offensive piece. They also lost a [formerly] reliable starter, and gave up a talented young starter. Along the way they picked up some players. Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, Carlos Gomez, Adam Everett, Livan Hernandez, Craig Monroe, and Mike Lamb were the most notable. Not exactly equivalent to what was given up, but some possibilities for (albeit somewhat limited) success. Here’s where it gets impressive though. What if at the beginning of the season I told you Livan would only be good for a few games and then quickly turn into the worst pitcher in baseball, Boof Bonser would pitch so poorly he gets dumped into the bullpen (where he does no better) at the beginning of June, Scott Baker would spend a month on the DL, Francisco Liriano would not meaningfully contribute until August, Pat Neshek would essentially be on the DL the entire season, Michael Cuddyer would be miss about three and a half months of the season, neither Joe Mauer or Delmon Young would hit a homerun until June, and Adam Everett would be hurt and along with Mike Lamb and Craig Monroe hit just a bit over .200? All of that in combination with the players we lost and the fact that we weren’t a playoff team last season wouldn’t give you much hope for this year. But in spite of all of that, the Twins found ways to win, young guys stepped up and filled the plethora of voids.

The Twins reinvented themselves this year. It’s hard not to when so many of the opening day starters are not starting by the end of the season. And personally I like the new look of the Twins, they steal bases and get bunt hits, and they hit enough singles to make your head spin. The pitchers throw strikes, (something of a lost art these days) and work both sides of the plate. The most exciting thing though is that almost everyone is so young that you can only see them improving. Next year looks bright as long as players can stay healthy and they keep play Twins baseball.